"Boeckh Investment Letter"
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Asset Allocation, Fall 2010
One of the major determinants of investment success over the next decade will be correctly anticipating the trend in general price inflation. How long the current deflationary environment persists, and how well the exit from quantitative easing is implemented will decide the relative performance of the three principal asset classes: fixed income, precious metals and equities.
Government Policy and the Markets: Prepare for Some Big Changes – 10/7/2010
When markets don’t perform the way politicians want, you can count on them to bypass, manipulate or manage these markets. All too frequently these attempts are motivated by short-term political needs where appearances take priority over substance. Currently market distortions in housing, credit and the financial system are huge and dangerously unstable.
US Government Debt: The Upward Spiral Continues – 9/21/2010
The great reflation—a combination of various stimulus packages, bank bailouts and built-in fiscal stabilizers—worked its magic in preventing the economic downturn of 2008-2009 from morphing into another great depression. Calculations by Alan Blinder and Mark Zandi indicate that, without those actions the economic downturn would have been three times deeper and unemployment would have almost doubled from its 10% peak.
Increasing Risks
The artificial nature of the U.S. economic recovery from the recession lows has always been obvious. In recent months, judging from media coverage, it is now mainstream. While there are a few lingering signs that support some modest optimism, it is getting difficult to find much to cheer about.
Emerging Markets Uprising: What it Means for Investors – 10/25/2010
Posted on November 1, 2010
Is this the emerging markets (EM) century? Will China rule the world? Are debt ridden Western economies with broken growth drivers and rapidly ageing societies on an irreversible path towards stagnation and decline? These penetrating issues are too weighty for the cut and thrust of an Asset Allocation committee’s regular investment meeting.
Emerging Market Uprising 10/25/2010
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